I have become wary of forecasting the effects of "worst case scenarios" on tourism. The problem is that you come up with a number that is between zero and a very large number. The WTTC has been doing this:
A swine flu pandemic will infect up to 60 million jobs
Far more interesting is the effects that the Mexican outbreak of swine flu is having on the Mexican economy. The closure of Sol Melia hotels is both worrying and indicative of how easy it is for footloose multinationals to switch locations when the going gets tough.
Even more worrying though is this bizare quote, coming remember as the WTTC predicts 60 million jobs being lost from a "worst case scenario":
"WTTC chairman Geoffrey Kent told delegates that economic problems and pandemic scares would ease in the long-term. 'Don't worry about the credit crunch. It will go away. Don't be discouraged by world events. They'll sort themselves out. They always do. Don't be discouraged by swine flu. It's all overblown anyway,' he said."
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